Then candidate Trump made a big deal throughout the presidential campaign about how he was not a politician. He said this with pride, talking about how he would "drain the swamp" and how he knew how to "get things done." Central to his entire campaign, then, was the promise that he would simultaneously not be a part of the Washington establishment while knowing how to do the job from day one.
Of course, where else do we see this type of marketing of oneself for a job? I couldn't walk into the prestigious Mayo Clinic and argue that I deserved a job as a surgeon because I was good at my current job and was not a surgical insider. Setting aside for a moment the legitimate questions regarding just how good Donald Trump was at his "job" before winning the Presidency, think back to this point: Trump said he was the right person for the job because he had no experience for the job.
Now imagine that the Mayo Clinic hires me as a surgeon. I come in, I scrub up, I go into the operating room. And then it hits me: it doesn't matter how good I was or wasn't in my old job, nor does it matter how good I was at selling the Mayo hiring team on me. Now I actually need to know how to do this. In other words, I'm probably in big trouble in this situation.
Name one profession besides politician in which there is such a fascination with putting inexperienced outsiders into key roles? There is typically a reason that people stay in politics beyond the self-serving, power hungry ones: they become good at what they do, and they like doing it, so they stay. That is not all together different than why I stay in my current career. But Trump did something that hasn't been done in our nation's history. It wasn't that he sold the outsider story managed to win the whole thing; Andrew Jackson did that back in the 1800s.
No, what Trump did was manage to actually be a functional outsider, in as much as he had no experience with politics or the political process. He then doubled down, putting an inexperienced administration around him in key positions, including much of his cabinet. So it can't really be that much of a surprise that Trump would roll out an Executive Order at some point that would be challenged successfully in the courts. What made the order that accomplished this so special is that, in many ways, the scope of what Trump was trying to do had been established as constitutional in the past. But a poor roll out, due to not preparing anyone in his Administration for the order, led to a hold in court. What happened next was particularly stunning to the system, if not at all surprising to those who have paid attention to Donald Trump throughout his career: President Trump attacked the Judiciary with reckless abandon.
Trump's actions almost assuredly helped to nudge the 9th circuit to unanimously decide against his Administration's appeal. Trump then vowed to fight on, in all CAPS, but predictably this was little more than hot air. At present it seems likely that his Administration will regroup, tail between their legs, and try to issue a more well thought out Executive Order on immigration next week. Of course, they will try to sell this not as a regrouping or retreat of any measure, and will instead try to spin this in some way attacking the "enemy." In this case, the court, as Trump has continued to do, most recently in his 80 minute marathon press conference on February 16th.
The upshot of this approach, however, is that it will only serve to further irritate the Courts at every level of this country. If the Trump Administration had played it cool it is possible that they might have won a stay, or at least a full appeal, at the 9th circuit. Furthermore, it was likely that the Supreme Court would have ruled in his Administration's favor, once Neil Gorsuch is confirmed (news flash: that's happening barring a huge surprise). I suspect strongly, however, that Trump's actions will have influenced Anthony Kennedy strongly, leading the "swing" vote on the court to be more likely to view the Trump Administration critically. Even beyond that, it is possible that the same thing has happened to John Roberts, the Chief Justice. If that is the case it is possible that even with Gorsuch, the Trump Administration may only have two other "safe" votes on their side: Justice Thomas and Justice Alito.
If that's the case, then the Trump Administration may be in for a rude awakening in the coming years, particularly if they continue to push a far right agenda rather than trying to trend towards the center. The more Trump complains about one third of our government structure the more likely it is that he will have conflict. And, thus far, President Trump seems no less likely to bash someone who upsets him than candidate Trump was. His attempts to discredit key American institutions, such as free press and the Courts, should be disconcerting to say the least to anyone invested in this country. For anyone who wants to see this country's democracy continue on, at least the way it was intended, the checks and balances are going to be more crucial than ever moving forward. The press, presenting information to the general public, and the Courts, evaluating the Administration's agenda, will be two critical aspects of this. President Trump and his Administration may have lost their first run in with the judicial system; smart money says it will not be his last.
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