I would imagine that most people know someone, even numerous someones, who supported Donald Trump through the last election. While his victory was one of the smallest in modern Presidential history, he did have a lot of people who showed up to vote for him. One of my favorite discussions leading up to the election with these individuals was to ask them their opinions on the handful of positions he had actually articulated. "The Wall" along our southern border being one of his earliest and most consistent talking points, I would often come back to asking them about immigration and, frequently, the wall itself.
What surprised me was this: many, many of the Trump supporters I know resorted to defending him by saying that he didn't mean what he was saying. These individuals would literally say "he won't do that," or "he didn't mean that," or, my favorite, "he didn't say that" (even when there was evidence that either Mr. Trump said it, or a robot built to look exactly like him said it). My favorite defense of Trump's campaign rhetoric, however, was delivered by my brother in law, who told my wife about the aforementioned southern border wall "it's a metaphor ... he doesn't really mean building a wall, he means heightening security." I'd like to say he was the only one, but rationalizations like this were very common among Trump supporters I knew prior to the election.
Of course, within his first ten days in office now President Trump has ordered the construction of the aforementioned wall. It certainly seems less like a metaphor now, as do many other things (special thanks to Rudy Giuliani for deciphering the meaning of the recent immigration related executive order; it's a (probably) legal attempt to get a (mostly) Muslim ban! Can't do it if it isn't constitutional, am I right Rudy?). Trump has, by and large, governed in his first days in office the way he said he was going to govern all along. The fantasy of the "pivot" from campaign Trump to moderate, rational President Trump has, thus far, been as realistic as the fantasy the Never Trumpers had that they would stop him at the convention ... or at the Electoral College ... or any number of other times.
All of this leads me to this article by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. Mr. Silver notes that "Trump is doing what he said he'd do," and then asks a simple question: "is that what his voters wanted?" I encourage you to read the whole article for the full context, but I think that this is a question of singular importance for both the Republicans and the Democrats. I haven't heard a lot personally from Trump supporters since the election, let alone the inauguration. One can imagine that they are somewhat holding their breath hoping that this works out as well as they fantasized. But this question will drive the midterm elections in 2018, as well as the nominating contest for President on both sides of the aisle in 2020.
President Trump will be 73 going on 74 throughout the 2020 primary process. If his policies have not been popular I can all but guarantee you that he will have to take on numerous challenges throughout the Republican primary season. If his policies, and their resultant outcomes, have been less than popular heading into the 2018 midterms, leading to Democrats holding on or even gaining in the Senate (it's a bad map for the Democrats in 2018, so holding on would be a huge victory), as well as gaining or taking over in the House, it is all but certain that he will face at least some measure of a challenge to be the party's nominee. The last time a serious challenge was mounted against an incumbent was 1980, and let's just say it didn't end too well for the incumbent, President Carter.
To Mr. Silver's point, I do wonder how much buyer's remorse there is going around with people who voted for Trump. There is assuredly a strong portion of those who voted for him who are not only celebrating these executive orders, but are probably bemoaning that they do not go far enough. I have to believe, however, that the totality of those individuals represent little more the the far fringe of the alt-right echo chamber championed by President Trump's "Chief Strategist," Mr. Breitbart himself, Steve Bannon*. The rest of those who voted for Mr. Trump have to be wishing that more of what he said was a metaphor. Even if they are nowhere near ready to admit it yet. But if they are having some buyer's remorse, President Trump and his team would be wise to head their voices, because avoiding becoming a marginalized President, let alone winning re-election, will be difficult if his fairly small coalition begins to splinter.
*As an aside, the uproar over Mr. Bannon joining the National Security Counsel while Mr. Trump functionally demoted the Director of National Intelligence and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff should get even more attention. Mr. Bannon has done nothing in his personal or professional life that indicates that he is worthy of his current post, let alone this level of influence in the intelligence world. I hope that this continues to be a flash point for the GOP's more foreign policy minded individuals like Senator McCain and Senator Graham. I could also write for thousands of words on Mr. Bannon's involvement alone ... or the less than qualified individuals that President Trump nominated to the various cabinet positions (DeVos, Price and Perry to name three). I could seriously quit my job and do NOTHING but write about all of this and not have enough hours in the day to truly lay out all the intricacies of what's going on. But let me simply say this: it doesn't matter whether you are liberal or conservative, identify as a Democrat or Republican or anywhere in between: Steve Bannon being this involved in our government should terrify you more than almost anything that is going on right now. He makes Karl Rove look like a saint by comparison.
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