Let's start here: the Republicans who have been in Washington DC for the last number of years are better poker players than we are. They certainly are better poker players than their Democratic counter parts. You can see that through the maneuvers that everyone bemoans as too high risk, only they haven't blown up in their face. Stare down the debt ceiling? Threaten to shut down the government? Come on, that's child's play to the GOP. They are better at this than the Democrats, and until the Democrats start to get better at it they are in real trouble.
Doyle Brunson is one of the most legendary poker players of all time. Brunson is famous for many things, including being a multi-time winner of the prestigious World Series of Poker. One quote from Brunson regarding how to play no-limit Texas Hold'em is particularly prescient as it relates to the GOP's strategy in Washington. Brunson says that "the key to no limit ... is to put a man to a decision for all his chips." In layman's terms, what Brunson is saying here is that the aggressor has the edge, because the other person is always reacting, rather than acting. It takes away their ability to play their own hand, and makes them play your hand. Of course, even the best really don't know with certainty what you have in your hand. That's why it works. And that's what the GOP has been doing to the Democrats for many years. The Democrats respond to the GOP, and they have no idea if they are bluffing or not.
In this recent article, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell states that the Democrats must give recent Trump Supreme Court Nominee Neil Gorsuch "an up and down vote," and that failure to do so would be only "to hurt Trump." He accuses the Democrats of playing politics, and essentially says they need to get over losing the election. But here's the beauty of McConnell's statement: he is accusing Democrats of hypothetically doing the very heinous, undemocratic thing ... that McConnell and his Republican counter parts did for almost all of 2016. Remember Merrick Garland? President Obama nominated him last March, and almost instantaneously the Republican Senators stated that they would not even acknowledge his nomination. Here's the kicker, for me at least. McConnell specifically states that many of his Democratic counter parts have said nice things about Gorsuch, and have voted for him in the past. That, of course, is identical to what many Republican Senators had said and done regarding Garland. But McConnell's message is clear, if hypocritical: do as we say, not as we did.
You can expect a similar level of condescension from McConnell, Paul Ryan, and President Trump's administration as well for any other tactics that the Democrats try to pull. The GOP has the advantage because they've been there, done that. They put the Democrats to a decision for all their chips, the Democrats misplayed their hand badly, and now the GOP is in a power position. The Republicans have the ability to claim, with a seemingly straight face, that the Democrats filibustering Gorsuch would be unprecedented, even as they did even less to acknowledge Garland's nomination. The gridlock in Washington D.C. is shameful, and both parties are to blame for it, but the GOP's ability to say things like McConnell did here with a straight face is really far beyond the skill set of the Democrats. You get the impression he even might believe himself.
The Democrats hurt themselves, three years ago, by using the so called "nuclear option" to eliminate the filibuster in most situations. Accordingly, it is feasible that the Senate Republicans may do the same if the Democrats actually do muster the strength to filibuster Gorsuch's nomination. The Republicans don't have a super majority, so eliminating the filibuster is one way to get Gorsuch through. A second way, however, if far more in line with their Machiavellian political skill set. If the Democrats try to play their hand via filibuster, I suspect that the GOP will respond with a targeted effort to systematically use the Democrats actions against them in the 2018 Senate races. I think the Republicans are silently hoping that the Trump Administration can stay out of its' own way long enough to allow for a vibrant 2018 calendar to come to fruition for the GOP, particularly in the Senate. But make no mistake: The Supreme Court is high enough stakes by itself that the GOP would use the remaining nuclear option to eliminate the filibuster on nominees to the high court. I just think that is less likely, given where the party is at today.
At the end of the day, high stakes brinkmanship has become the standard operating procedure for Washington D.C. The Democrats are left pretty helpless, with their only option being to go more extreme than the GOP has in the last number of years. That is scary enough, but particularly if they keep being so bad at guessing where and when to make their moves. Can the Democrats switch the current dynamic and be on the offensive? Are they capable of taking the GOP playbook and making it work for them in a way that doesn't seem disingenuous at best, and which plays into the long term Republican plan at worst? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: McConnell is a better poker player than anyone the Democrats have at the present time.
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