Politics happens fast, and predictions tend to fall to the wayside even faster. In just the last twelve years the Republican Party has been left for dead by media pundits at least twice. First, after the second term of George W. Bush, which resulted in a landslide election that not only brought President Obama to office but also grew strong majorities in the House and Senate. This election led to James Carville writing a book entitled "40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation." Of course, Carville's prediction fell just a bit short; before the book could have a paper back printing in 2011 you had the 2010 midterms, which saw the GOP surge to take back the House, and nearly take back the Senate.
And here we are again, with analysis wondering where the GOP will go from here, and think pieces declaring the end of the Republican party. This is, of course, not unprecedented in our history (I'm looking at you Whigs), but it is unlikely. That said, I believe it's clear that Trumpism gives the GOP a bigger stumbling block than the end of the Bush administration did. It's important to recognize key factors why that may be:
1. The GOP finds itself torn in two in a way it hasn't in quite some time. The biggest fault line lies squarely over one of the hallowed centerpieces of conservative politics: small government with balanced budgets. While the GOP hasn't actually believed in these things for years*, they've at least been uniform in professing their belief in these things. Now, you have a populist surge within the Republican party, headed by Trump and articulated by individuals like Josh Hawley (Senator from Missouri) that is in alignment on some issues with Bernie Sanders. While the Presidencies of Reagan and George W Bush saw national debt increases north of 100%, they at least stuck to the talking point of small government and balanced spending. Trump didn't, and now the party is openly split between those who truly seem to believe in these ideals and those who openly do not.
2. Government spending isn't the only place where the GOP finds itself at a crossroads. The merger of the Republican Party with conservative Christians took place over many decades, but crystalized under Karl Rove's leadership during George W Bush's two terms in office. The Presidency of Donald Trump, however, has turned that on its head. Not to say that conservative Christian's are not, by and large, supportive of President Trump. They are; they just have to engage in a lot more mental, ethical and moral gymnastics to get there. This, in turn, has led to some splintering within the "religious right" and GOP coalition. Rove famously pointed out that conservative Christians either vote Republican or they don't vote; George W Bush listened to him where his father didn't, and he ensured that his platform spoke to this group directly. It was an easier sell, however: In Bush you had a born again Christian who genuinely believed what he was saying. In Trump you have the Access Hollywood, multi-divorced, man who has a moral standing that is the anthesis of what Christian conservatives claim to stand for. For many, it was worth it, and the evidence is seen in three names: Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney-Barrett. But, as President Lincoln once sagely put it, a house divided cannot stand. I suspect that the GOP will have a "religious right" problem in the coming years. Some will believe the ends (three conservative, presumably anti-abortion Justices on the Supreme Court) will justify the means, and they will continue to support. Others will say "we got what we wanted, now I'm not going to vote." But regardless the Christian conservatives in this country will face an internal reckoning centered around the hypocrisy of supporting Donald Trump, a man who has very often stood in opposition to Christian principles. Or at least they should.
3. Finally, the Trump Administration led to a third dividing line between the GOP of old and the new order: foreign policy. The coalition of Nixon, Reagan and both Presidents Bush was built on a strong, hawkish US foreign policy. We arm up, we demonstrate power globally, and we fight wars (early and often if possible). President Trump spun this on its' head, seeking to withdraw from international coalitions and agreements, ceding power and influence to China, Russia, and others, and looking to take the US to a more isolationist position**. Again, this is not without precedent (Wilson and FDR were isolationist ahead of the World Wars until they were not), but it is unprecedented in the modern (post WWII) era. What makes it particularly unprecedented is that, under President Trump, the GOP went from being uniformly dominated by hawks to housing portions more dovish than the vast majority of anti-interventionist Democrats.
Taken in total, these three balancing acts (size of government and spending, conservative Christian values, and foreign policy) seem poised to drive the discussion in the build up to 2024, and the Republican primaries. Of course, the success, or lack thereof, of the Biden administration will play a huge role in the GOP nominating process, as will the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats managed to win the White House in 2020, lose seats in the House, and gain seats in the Senate; all told, it was an atypical election year.
Prognosticating this far out is a fraught exercise, but there is reason to believe that the Republicans may take back the House in 2022, while losing another seat or two in the Senate. Imagine, for a moment, that outcome, and couple it with another reasonable outcome: after the 2022 midterm election President Biden announces he will take the James K. Polk route and only serve a single term, declining to run for re-election. Vice President Harris becomes a leading candidate, but certainly not a shoe in (most likely). It is in that unique (albeit imaginary at this point) environment that the Republican Primary in 2024 may take place.
So the Democrats would have the establishment (Harris would likely have a chance to clear this portion of the field unless the Administration is in disarray) face off against the far left (hard to tell this far out, but think AOC or someone of that type of stature). The Republicans, conversely, would have an interparty war between more establishment, traditional members (Ben Sasse, Nikki Haley probably, perhaps John Kasich or Larry Hogan), members trying to straddle the line between Trumpism and the traditional GOP (looking at you Mike Pence, but also Tom Cotton), and those who are fully trying to inherit the championship belt from Trump and declare Trumpism as the new GOP platform (Josh Hawley, maybe Ted Cruz, and yes, quite possibly a Trump - either the 45th President himself looking for a Cleveland like comeback, or Donald Trump Jr.).
It's hard to say who has an advantage in that scenario this far out. At this moment it would seem that Ben Sasse, or those like him, have the inside track given how divided the GOP appears to be. Mike Pence seems to be damaged goods, but a book tour and time on cable news can repair some of that. Hawley and Cruz, to say nothing of the Trumps, seem on the verge of being ostracized at present, but that can swing around quickly to cult hero status. The reality is that the next two years will be crucial in this process. Who will have the largest voice in the minority government. Already, the battle lines are drawn: you're either with Trump (Jim Jordan) or you're the enemy and need to be stripped of all influence (Liz Cheney). Only a Sith deals in absolutes? Try telling that to Trump and his acolytes. The GOP has become a zero sum game all unto itself. I will be paying the closest attention to members who try to have it both ways. It is an unlikely gambit, fraught with pitfalls on both sides, but if a charismatic enough politician can simultaneously claim to be the heir to Reagan and Trump ... well, that person will be a strong candidate in 2024, regardless of what the Biden Administration does, regardless of who is running at the top of the Democratic ticket. The race to 2024 may have informally started, but it officially begins today. Hope you're ready.
*The reigning champion for adding to the national debt remains FDR (and, with a nearly 1,050% increase - yes you read that right - FDR will likely never be topped). But After FDR (the Great Depression and WWII) and Woodrow Wilson (WWI) the next highest increases to the debt by percentage are Reagan (186%) and George W Bush (101%). Obama will stay ahead of Trump, but only due to having served two terms to Trump's one; at the end of one term the debt's growth under Trump exceeds the growth under Obama, who was dealing with the great recession at the time.
**This, in turn, has left the Biden Administration a far more dangerous North Korea and Iran, for example, than the Trump Administration was left by the Obama Administration.
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